What Changed After Almost Four Months of War? Analysts Say Not Much.

Caitlin Talmadge | The New York Times

June 21, 2026

A painting of Iran’s first two supreme leaders in Tehran this month. The second, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed at the start of the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran this year. Credit: Arash Khamooshi/Polaris for The New York Times

Caitlin Talmadge, SSP faculty and affiliate at the Center for Nuclear Security Policy (CNSP), offers insights into the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran aimed at ending the ongoing war, for a New York Times article by Neil MacFarquhar.

 

 

 

 

 

By Saturday, even the most significant immediate result of the deal — Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which Mr. Trump had identified as essential — seemed at risk. Iran’s military said it was closing the waterway again, because the United States had failed to stop the fighting in Lebanon. The U.S. military contested that, saying the strait remained open as the agreement stipulated.

“This is not a document the United States agreed to because the war demonstrated a new U.S. military superiority,” said Caitlin Talmadge, a professor at M.I.T. who specializes in Persian Gulf security issues. “I think it’s a document that has resulted from the fact that the United States bit off more than it could chew and doesn’t want to escalate.”

That’s a worthy goal, she said. “But it really raises the question of what was achieved here, especially in comparison to the original Iran nuclear deal.”

 

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From The New York Times