Barry Posen | International Security
March 31, 2025
"I think in most of the cases where you see preventive war being launched, there's a weighty change in the balance of power that's implicated in the preventer’s decision-making," says SSP's Barry Posen.
Why did Vladimir Putin decide to invade Ukraine in 2022? Posen argues that Putin’s decision is consistent with the logic of preventive war. Increasing U.S. and NATO military cooperation with Ukraine likely convinced Putin that he did not have much time to forestall Ukraine’s NATO membership, which would shift the balance of power against Russia.
International Security Article: Barry R. Posen, “Putin's Preventive War: The 2022 Invasion of Ukraine,” International Security, Vol. 49, No. 3 (Winter 2024/25), pp. 7–49, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00501.
From International Security Podcast