Lauren Sukin, Gomez, M. A., & Winger, G. | Contemporary Security Policy
July 29, 2025
“Partnerships are not simply ‘alliances lite’…[instead,] ‘alliance primacy’ may operate differently than previously assumed; it may be more influential in shaping the dynamics of support than those of intervention or retaliation,” writes Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow, Lauren Sukin along with co-authors Miguel Alberto Gomez and Gregory Winger for Contemporary Security Policy.
ABSTRACT
Competition between China and the United States spurs renewed emphasis on security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. However, this development in security collaboration unfolds differently from the past. While Washington's Cold War alliances endure, these are supplemented by less formal arrangements with new regional partners. This reflects a shift from the codified obligations of treaty alliances in favor of flexible forms of security partnerships. While the distinctions between allies and partners may blur during peacetime, they can become acute amid a crisis. To test how differences in security arrangements may manifest in a crisis, we conducted a survey experiment on a representative sample of 2,021 US citizens, exploring their response to Chinese aggression against a regional state. We find that variations in bilateral relationships influence public support for the target of China's aggression. However, an aversion to retaliatory measures towards China exists, regardless of the target's relationship with the United States.
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