Carol Saivetz writes,

"For the Ukrainian president, the Kursk offensive is the first step toward a possible end-game more favorable to Ukraine. With all the unknowns, it is unclear whether his gambit will succeed.  

Over a month ago, Kyiv surprised the world when it attacked across the border into the Kursk region of Russia. Ukraine reportedly retains control of approximately 100 villages. The incursion allowed Kyiv to demonstrate to its Western supporters and Moscow that it is capable of bold initiatives and revealed how unprepared Russia was for any such attack.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Kyiv was not interested in holding Russian territory permanently, but that the incursion was designed to force Russia to negotiate. Meanwhile, Russian president Vladimir Putin seemingly laughed off the incursion. He stated, "The enemy's goal was to make us nervous and worry and to transfer troops from one sector to another and to stop our offensive in key areas, primarily in the Donbas," but it didn’t work. 

In the short-run, the Ukrainian attack has bolstered the morale of Ukrainian forces and changed the narrative for the Ukrainian people, who have endured two-and-a-half years of missiles, drones, and glide bombs. In part, at least, the assault furthered Kyiv’s attempts to dent the average Russian’s sense of invulnerability.  

Militarily, Kyiv hoped that the Russians would redeploy at least some of the troops from the Donbas front lines to Kursk. Instead, Moscow maintains its assault toward the crucial rail depot of Pokrovsk, with the city now encircled by the Russian troops. 

Kursk Offensive: So What Now?  
The Kursk offensive seems to have emboldened Zelenskyy. In addition to drone strikes on Belgorod and oil refineries, Ukraine is carrying out daily drone attacks on targets well within Russia, including the outskirts of Moscow. "

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September 2024, The National Interest