The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the most recent and most egregious example of Russia’s determination to use force to ensure that its periphery bows to its wishes. But over the past year, Russia’s reverses in Ukraine have echoed throughout the former post-Soviet space and are now jeopardizing Putin’s aspirations for a Russian-dominated “Eurasian order.”

Nowhere is this more apparent than in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Last September, as Russian forces were being pushed back in Ukraine, fighting erupted (again) between Armenia and Azerbaijan and border skirmishes occurred between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. There are two possible explanations: On the one hand, observers speculated that the outbreak of hostilities indicated that states were taking advantage of Moscow’s preoccupation with Ukraine to loosen the Kremlin’s grip. On the other hand, regional specialists, like Marlene LaRuelle, argued that Russia can no longer serve as a guarantor of regional security because of the war. Both may be true, with the cumulative effect of Russia’s adventurism in Ukraine weakening its hold on the post-Soviet space and opening the door to other countries interested in asserting their own influence.