Managing the risks of US-China war: Implementing a strategy of integrated deterrence | 2022 | Publications

Managing the risks of US-China war: Implementing a strategy of integrated deterrence

Caitlin Talmadge

Brookings, September 2022 (With Michael E O'Hanton and Melanie W. Sisson)

Ongoing disagreement between China and Taiwan about the desirability of unification and intensified competition between the United States and China are pressurizing the three-way relationship. If the United States is to maintain a constructive role in preventing the outbreak of a cross-Strait war, it will need to implement a strategy to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan that is consistent with U.S. interests and capabilities, and that provides clarity around the existentially important matter of preventing nuclear escalation, in the event a conflict does occur. The inclusion in the 2022 U.S. National Defense Strategy of the concept of "integrated deterrence" is a sensible approach to doing so. It can be enhanced by: reaffirmation of the U.S. One-China policy; investment in conventional capabilities suited to the geography of the Western Pacific and resilient to China's military concept of systems warfare; clear signaling about the economic and political consequences of aggression against Taiwan; and decreasing U.S. domestic vulnerabilities to Chinese embargoes and cyber attacks.