Threading the Needle: The South China Sea Disputes and U.S.-China Relations | 2016 | Publications

Threading the Needle: The South China Sea Disputes and U.S.-China Relations

M. Taylor Fravel

In Robert Ross and Øystein Tsunjo, eds., Strategic Adjustment and the Rise of China: Power and Politics in East Asia, 2017 

In the South China Sea, China and the United States face pointed policy dilemmas. The challenge for China has been to assert its claims while avoiding the formation of a balancing coaliition, while the challenge for the United States has been to defend its committments without emboldening other claimant states and becoming entrapped in their disputes with China. Through an examination of how the United States and China have managed these pressures, this chapter yields three findings. First, actions by the United States and China have often created incentives for the other state to push back, creating negative spirals. Second, China and the United States have enhanced their positions in the South China Sea. Third, actions taken by both sides have helped to shield the broader relationship from tensions and competition in the dispute.