A Defense Concept for Ukraine | 1995 | Publications

A Defense Concept for Ukraine

Barry R. Posen

in Irina Kobrinskaya and Sherman Garnett, eds., Ukraine: Issues of Security (Moscow: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1996) [in Russian] [English translation provided by SSP]

"I will argue that Ukraine can address most of its plausible threat scenarios, with modest effectiveness, through a military strategy that could be termed a 'strategic defense in depth.' This strategy cannot hope actually to hold all of Ukraine against all challenges, but it can pose an impressive array of probable costs and plausible risks to a future aggressor. If properly organized, Ukrainian forces should be able to fight a tough delaying action in the eastern half of the country.

Ukrainian forces should then be able to mount a positional defense of the other half of the country, west of the Dnipro, against a very strong attack. This defense could impose very high costs on an attacker, though it too would ultimately fail if Ukrainian forces cannot produce or, more realistically, receive as military aid, the fuel, replacement weaponry, and munitions necessary to sustain modern warfare."