Western Security Assistance and Russia’s Closing Window to Invade Ukraine

Summary/Abstract:

Before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Western allies provided substantial military training and advising to Ukraine. Examining Western security assistance to Ukraine helps explain the causes of Russia’s invasion as well as provides more general implications for the effectiveness of security assistance for deterrence and defense. I argue that Ukraine’s increasingly capable security sector— strengthened by Western assistance – presented a closing window of opportunity for Russia to dominate Ukrainian politics. Russia invaded in part because it believed that Ukraine would only become stronger in the future, but failed because it underestimated the extent to which Ukraine's military modernization and security sector reforms had already succeeded. The implication is that security assistance does not necessarily decrease the risk of war, even when carefully calibrated to avoid rapid, material shifts in the balance of power. Efforts to reassure a rival and extend the window as long as possible can be useful if they prevent the rival from noticing the window’s closing until too late.

Bio:

Alexandra Chinchilla is as an Assistant Professor at the Bush School of Government & Public Service at  Texas A&M University. She was previously a Rosenwald Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy and International Security and Niehaus Postdoctoral Fellow at The John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth College. She received her Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Chicago in 2021.

Dr. Chinchilla’s research focuses on international security, with a regional interest in Russia and Eastern Europe. In her book project and related articles, she examines how powerful states use security assistance tools, like military training and advising, and when these tools succeed in influencing other militaries. Her dissertation on this topic won an honorable mention for Best Dissertation from the American Political Science Association’s International Collaboration section. Dr. Chinchilla’s other research projects examine proxy war, political violence, and the effects of security cooperation on democracy, human rights, and civil-military relations in recipient countries. Her work combines methods from political economy with qualitative research based on archival work and original interviews. Dr. Chinchilla’s research has been published in the Journal of Peace Research, International Politics, the International Studies Review, and Studies in Conflict & Terrorism. It has been supported by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) and the Minerva Research Initiative, the Notre Dame International Security Center, The Charles Koch Foundation, and The Pearson Institute for the Study and Resolution of Global Conflicts at the University of Chicago.