In most of the 24 scenarios from CSIS's wargames, the Taiwanese and their allies ultimately prevailed—albeit at enormous cost in people and equipment. And when they prevailed, it was because of two key weapons: submarines and bombers.

In a majority of the simulations, “submarines were able to enter the Chinese defensive zone and wreak havoc with the Chinese fleet,” SSP Research Scientist Eric Heginbotham, SSP alum Matthew Cancian, and Mark Cancian concluded.