Before responding to the challenge of two nuclear peers, the United States should revisit the question of which nuclear strategy can best achieve its goals of preventing nonnuclear aggression against itself and its allies, avoiding nuclear war, and avoiding catastrophic escalation if nuclear war occurs. The widespread concern generated by the arrival of two nuclear peers provides a window for this reevaluation. If past debates are any guide, the prospects for significant change are poor. But now, maybe more than ever, the United States needs to change its nuclear doctrine by abandoning counterforce targeting in favor of infrastructure targeting. Doing so will enable the United States to avoid overreacting to the arrival of China as a second nuclear peer, generating an unnecessary and futile arms race, and increasing the probability of nuclear war.

--SSP Senior Fellow Charles Glaser with James M. Acton, and Steve Fetter in Foreign Affairs