America’s Enduring Economic Power Advantage Over China | 2024 | Events

America’s Enduring Economic Power Advantage Over China
Stephen Brooks
Dartmouth College
November 6, 2024
12-1:30pm

Summary/Abstract:

The conventional wisdom is that the U.S. and China have similar levels of economic power and that Washington cannot undertake a broad economic cutoff of China without hurting itself as much or more in the process.  The conventional wisdom is wrong on both fronts. Once we account for the role of global firms, the analysis shows America’s true economic power is much greater than is commonly appreciated and China’s is much lower. China’s economic capacity has also been overestimated because Beijing manipulates its economic data and because comparing China’s uniquely structured economy with the rest of the world’s leading economies is challenging. A proper accounting of the lopsided balance of economic power is key for understanding why the U.S. has been able to so effectively target and undermine individual Chinese companies and even entire sectors in recent years.  But could America initiate a broad economic cutoff China in wartime without hurting itself as much or more than China? The analysis indicates America could impose massive disproportionate harm on China if it were to impose a comprehensive cutoff of China in cooperation with its allies or via a distant naval blockade:  across six scenarios, China’s short-term economic losses range from being 5 times higher than America’s to 11 times higher. And in the long run, the U.S. and almost all of its allies would soon return to previous economic growth levels following a broad economic cutoff; in contrast, China’s growth would be permanently degraded.

Bio:

Stephen G. Brooks is a Professor of Government at Dartmouth, and has previously held fellowships at Harvard and Princeton.  His research examines two topics: U.S. grand strategy and how economic factors influence security affairs.  He is the author of five books: Producing Security: Multinational Corporations, Globalization, and the Changing Calculus of Conflict (Princeton, 2005); World out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy (Princeton, 2008), with William Wohlforth; America Abroad: The United States’ Global Role in the 21st Century (Oxford, 2016), with William Wohlforth; Political Economy of Security (Princeton, forthcoming); and Command of Commerce (Oxford, forthcoming), with Ben Vagle.  He has published numerous articles in journals such as International Security, International Organization, Foreign Affairs, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Politics, Perspectives on Politics, and Security Studies.  He received his Ph.D. in Political Science with Distinction from Yale University, where his dissertation received the American Political Science Association's Helen Dwight Reid Award for the best doctoral dissertation in international relations, law, and politics.

This event will be in-person for the MIT community only. It will not be livestreamed or recorded.